The Vancouver Housing Market Nobody’s Talking About

Last month, the typical home in Metro Vancouver got about sixty thousand dollars cheaper than it was a year ago.

And people bought fewer of them.

Think about how strange that is. For twenty years, every conversation about housing in this city has ended the same way: “If prices ever come down, I’ll jump in.” Well, prices came down. So where is everybody?

That’s what we’re figuring out today. And the answer is a lot more interesting than “the market’s dead.” Because when you dig into the numbers, one part of this market is quietly falling apart, and another part is doing something nobody predicted.

THE PARADOX

Let’s start with the headline. In September, 1,717 homes sold across Metro Vancouver. That’s down about eight percent from last September, and it’s a full quarter below what we’d normally see this time of year.

Meanwhile, the benchmark price for a typical home landed just under $1.08 million. Down five and a half percent year over year. Down a little again from August. And from July. And from June.

This isn’t a crash. Nobody’s waking up to forty percent losses. It’s more like a slow leak. A tire that’s a few PSI lower every time you check it.

So you’d expect buyers to be circling. Instead, a lot of them are doing the exact same thing they did when prices were going up: waiting.

Here’s the thing, though. That headline number is hiding something. Because when you split it apart by type of home, the story completely flips.

THE SPLIT

Detached houses? Sales went up in September. Up about four percent from last year.

Townhouses? Basically flat. Holding steady.

Condos? Down almost nineteen percent.

So when you hear “Vancouver sales are down,” what you’re really hearing is “Vancouver condo sales are down.” The board’s own chief economist pointed this out: the weakness is almost entirely in apartments, which normally make up around half of all sales.

Which raises the obvious question. Why would the cheapest type of home, the one first-time buyers are supposed to be lining up for, be the one nobody wants right now?

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CONDO

Picture a building that went up in Burnaby or Surrey a few years back. When those units were sold off the floor plan, a big share went to investors. People who weren’t planning to live there. They were betting that by the time the building finished, the unit would be worth more than they paid, and rent would cover the mortgage in the meantime.

That bet made sense in 2021. Borrowing was cheap and prices only went one direction.

Fast forward. The building is done. The investor has to close. And now the math looks completely different. The unit may be worth less than the contract price. The mortgage costs more than they planned for. The rent doesn’t cover it.

So what do a lot of them do? List it.

Now multiply that across thousands of small units, a lot of them one-bedrooms and studios, and you get a segment where there’s plenty of supply and a buyer pool that’s thinner than it used to be. Investors aren’t rushing in to replace the ones rushing out.

And the people who would live in those units? Many of them are looking at a $680,000 one-bedroom, then looking at their family situation, and asking a different question.

Which brings us to the part nobody saw coming.

THE HOUSE COMEBACK

The benchmark detached house across Metro Vancouver is now about $1.78 million.

I know. That’s still an absurd amount of money for most people. But hold onto that number, because for a certain kind of buyer, something has shifted.

A few years ago, if you owned a condo and wanted a house, the gap felt impossible. Every month you waited, the house got further away. Now, both are coming down, but the bigger, more expensive homes have more room to move. In dollar terms, a seven percent drop on a house is a lot of money. And sellers of houses have been more willing to negotiate.

So you’ve got move-up buyers, people with equity and steady incomes, who suddenly feel like the window cracked open a bit. They’re the ones keeping detached sales alive.

That’s the strange shape of this market right now: the top end is moving and the entry level is stuck.

But if you’re not in Vancouver proper, you might be wondering whether any of this applies to you. So let’s head east.

THE FRASER VALLEY

For years, the advice to anyone priced out of Vancouver was simple: drive until you qualify. Surrey. Langley. Abbotsford. Chilliwack if you’re really committed.

Out there, prices have actually fallen faster. The Fraser Valley board says its benchmark price dropped about seven percent from a year ago, and sales slipped too. Buyers there are being cautious, even as more listings hit the market.

So here’s the question I’d be asking if I were looking out there: if the gap between Vancouver and the Valley is shrinking in your favour on one side, does the commute still make sense?

Because you’re not just buying a house. You’re buying a drive. Two hours a day on Highway 1 is roughly five hundred hours a year. That’s not nothing. Some people do that math and decide a townhouse closer to work beats a detached house in Langley. Others decide the yard and the extra bedroom are worth every minute.

There’s no universal right answer. But for the first time in a while, buyers actually have room to make that choice instead of taking whatever they can afford.

And that idea, room to choose, is really what this whole market comes down to.

WHO HAS THE POWER NOW

Here’s the number I’d pay the most attention to if you’re thinking of buying: inventory.

Right now there are about 16,400 homes for sale in Metro Vancouver. That’s roughly a quarter more than the long-term average for this time of year.

What does that actually mean on the ground? It means if you walk into an open house this fall, you’re probably not competing with eleven other offers. You can ask for a subject-to-inspection clause. You can ask for financing conditions. You can come in under asking and not get laughed out of the room.

Remember 2021? People were waiving inspections on million-dollar homes because they were terrified of losing out. That’s gone, at least for now.

If you’re selling, this is the hard part to hear. The price your neighbour got in 2022 is not your price. The homes sitting on the market for months are usually the ones whose owners are still anchored to that peak. The ones that sell are priced for the market that exists today, not the one we remember.

So everyone’s watching, everyone’s waiting. Which leads to the question everybody really wants answered.

SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Nobody can tell you where prices go next. Not me, not a realtor, not a bank economist. Anyone who says they know for sure is selling something.

But here’s what I’d watch.

First, borrowing costs. When rates move, buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines tend to move with them. Watch the Bank of Canada announcements, and watch what fixed mortgage rates do in the weeks after.

Second, the condo pipeline. As long as investor-owned units keep finishing and listing, that segment probably stays soft. That’s bad news for investors and potentially great news for a first-time buyer who plans to live in the place for ten years.

Third, spring. Vancouver’s market has a rhythm. Fall and winter are quiet. If spring 2027 arrives and buyers still aren’t showing up, that tells you a lot more than any single month does.

THE REAL TAKEAWAY

So let’s go back to where we started. Prices came down, and people bought less. Why?

Because for most of us, the decision to buy was never really about whether prices were dropping. It was about whether we felt sure. And a slowly falling market makes people feel less sure, not more. Nobody wants to buy on Tuesday and watch the price slip on Wednesday.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: you’ll never get a market that feels certain and gives you leverage at the same time. When everyone’s confident, you’re in a bidding war. When you have negotiating power, it’s because everyone else is nervous.

Right now, in this city, buyers have more power than they’ve had in years. Whether that’s an opportunity or a warning depends completely on your timeline, your job, and how long you plan to stay.

So I want to hear from you. Are you buying, selling, or waiting this fall? And if you’re waiting, what exactly are you waiting for? Drop it in the comments. I read them, and the best questions might end up in the next video.